OIL PRICES DECLINE AMID ISRAEL-HAMAS PEACE TALKS, FED RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS

Oil prices dropped by over $1 per barrel on Monday due to ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo, which alleviated concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East. 

Additionally, U.S. inflation data suggested that interest rate cuts might not occur imminently, further dampening market sentiment. Brent crude futures for June, set to expire on Tuesday, fell by $1.25, or 1.4%, to $88.25 a barrel as of 11:13 a.m. EDT (1513 GMT). 

The July contract, which was more active, declined by $1.01, or 1.14%, to $87.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also experienced a decrease of $1.19, or 1.4%, settling at $82.66 a barrel.

Also read: Oil settles higher on Middle East supply woes, US inflation data limits gains; Brent at $89/bbl

“Optimism prevailed from the start of the trading session as cooling of US bond yields and letdown in middle-east conflict coupled with a drop in crude oil prices generated a lot of enthusiasm amongst the investors. With the polling season on, the market is hoping for a clear mandate in favour of the ruling party. The two-day Fed's monetary policy meeting starting Tuesday will be closely watched by global investors, although markets doesn't expect any change in the policy outcome,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.

What's weighing on oil prices?

• Israeli airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 25 Palestinians and caused numerous injuries on Monday, coinciding with the arrival of Hamas leaders in Cairo for fresh discussions with Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries.
• Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry expressed optimism about the situation but indicated that Egypt is awaiting responses on the proposed plan from both Israel and Hamas.
• Market participants were also closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy review scheduled for May 1, which might provide insights into the central bank's stance on interest rate adjustments.
• Investors are treading cautiously, assessing a heightened likelihood that the Fed might raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point both this year and the next, given the persistence of inflationary pressures and strength in the labor market.
• In March, monthly inflation in the U.S. experienced a moderate increase, tempering expectations of imminent rate reductions. Had inflation been lower, it would have bolstered expectations for rate cuts, which typically stimulate economic expansion and demand for oil.

Also read: Gold prices decline as rate cut hopes ease, focus shifts to upcoming Fed meeting

“Crude oil prices exhibited significant volatility last week, rebounding from their lows amidst global supply concerns and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Israel's escalation in Gaza renewed worries about global oil supply. The U.S. crude oil stocks experienced a larger-than-expected decline, according to the U.S. EIA, with inventories dropping by 6.4 million barrels for the week ending on April 19, 2024, compared to an anticipated build of 1.6 million barrels. This unexpected decrease in stocks, coupled with increased tensions in the Middle East, provided support to oil prices at lower levels. However, the disappointing U.S. GDP data, surge in U.S. inflation, and the strength of the dollar index are constraining the potential gains in crude oil prices. Anticipating continued volatility in today's trading session, we foresee crude oil finding support at $82.10–81.40, with resistance levels at $83.30-83.90,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

2024-04-29T16:53:52Z dg43tfdfdgfd