OPINION: TACTICAL STAND BY NDA, INDIA - WHO GAINS FROM 4-CORNERED CONTEST IN PUNJAB?

After failed talks with Naveen Patnaik's BJD in Odisha, the Shiromani Akali Dal's gharwapsi into the BJP-led NDA, has also hit a wall, with both parties announcing to go solo in Punjab. This effectively means we could see a four-cornered contest in the state. The decision comes after AAP and Congress, which have seat sharing pacts in a few states outside Punjab, have also decided to fight independently.

As per reports, there were disagreements over political, religious, and socio-cultural issues between the BJP and the SAD. With the farmers' protest continuing, the SAD was reluctant to tie up with the BJP.

What does it mean for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? India Today's Mood of the Nation Survey of February 2024 gives 5 seats each to AAP and Congress, 2 to the BJP and 1 to the SAD. Times Now-ETG gives 7 seats to AAP, 3 each to Congress and the BJP.

Punjab - A complex state to decipher

The duality of the Sikh location – a minority in India but a majority in Punjab – is a continuing source of political conflict and tension between the Sikh majority Punjab and the Hindu majority India (Pritam Singh, 2013). There is a strong anger against the Centre, wounds of 1984 not yet fully healed.

Hindus, accounting for 38 per cent – 39 per cent of the population, live in peace and harmony in the state with Sikhs (58 per cent as per Census 2011). Their relationship is not of the type of Hindu-Muslim in many parts of India. The SAD-BJP alliance from 1996 to 2020 was an epitome of bhaichara of sorts.

So any attempt to do politics on religious lines does not necessarily work here. The BJP, cognisant of the fact, has been inducting many leaders of the Sikh community to shed its tag of a party representing only the Hindu community and to improve its acceptability.

Punjab - A hub of anti-centre politics

Regionalism is integral to Sikh culture, where the BJP is seen as a national party. The Punjabis generally don't want their fate to be remote-controlled by Delhi. Strong nationalism didn't work here like in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when Punjab along with Kerala and Tamil Nadu were the major outliers of sorts.

The average anti-centre vote has been 60 per cent and pro-centre 40 per cent over the past five elections. The highest pro-centre vote polled was in 2004 (Sikhs have high regard for Vajpayee), and in 2009 (when we had Manmohan Singh, a Sikh, as Prime Minister). These two times, the incumbent party won more seats than the Opposition. Elsewhere in the last five polls, the Opposition has won more seats than the incumbent government party / alliance.

AAP made a scintillating debut in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, bagging a 24 per cent vote share and winning 4 seats largely at the expense of the Shiromani Akali Dal (-8 per cent) and the INC (-12 per cent). It continued with its good performance in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections with a similar vote share as it went on to occupy the Leader of Opposition chair.

In the 2019 general elections, AAP's vote share declined to 7 per cent, and Congress emerged the beneficiary of anti-centre politics, bagging 40 per cent vote share and 8 seats, with AAP reduced to just 1 seat.

In the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, AAP swept the state, dethroning Congress, relegating Akali's to third place for two successive elections in a row. The first election in a long time when a quadrangular contest was witnessed in the state.

1989 - A quadrangular contest

In 1989, the two factions of the Shiromani Akali Dal contested the elections; Simranjit Singh Mann and the Parkash Singh Badal faction. The SAD (Mann) had an alliance with the Janata Dal and left 1 seat for the BJP as well. Congress and the BSP also contested for most of the seats independently. In line with anti-centre politics and anger over the Golden Temple attack, SAD (Mann) + Janata Dal alliance won 7, Congress 2, Independents 3 and BSP 1 seat.

The entry of AAP has complicated matters for analysts and party strategists. The party, which did not even contest in 2012, has gained 42 per cent vote share since its debut. Half of it (17 per cent) has come at the expense of Congress and the other half (17 per cent) at the expense of the Shiromani Akali Dal, 8 per cent from smaller parties with AAP getting the urban vote of the INC as well as the rural vote of the SAD.

The million-dollar question is whether it will be able to hold onto its vote share in a national election as its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, is languishing in jail and question marks about the performance of Bhagwant Mann's government persist.

Congress and the AAP did not form an alliance as it would have ceded opposition space to the Akalis and helped them in their revival. Congress and AAP were main rivals in both the 2017 and 2022 elections and this could have created confusion and anger amongst their vote banks.

The same tactic is being used by the BJP here. If SAD had formed an alliance with the BJP, then it would have had to face the brunt of farmers' protests. AAP / INC may have further eaten into Akalis vote share. A seamless transfer of the Sikh vote base of Akalis to the BJP and the Hindu vote base of BJP to SAD may not have taken place, hurting the alliance.

By not aligning with the BJP, the Shiromani Akali Dal will be competing for the anti-centre vote along with AAP and Congress, thus crowding the opposition space. The BJP hopes that the SAD will split the Sikh vote into three parts and win a couple of seats / damage the prospects of AAP and Congress. By employing this strategy, it is trying to ensure that the tally of Congress (8 in 2019) declines in 2024.

On March 27, SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal said at a public meeting that the elections are a battle between "(Sikh) Panth and Punjab on one hand and all anti-Punjab parties that run from Delhi on the other", making a clear anti-centre pitch.

It also helps the BJP capture the full pro-centre vote which it has been sharing with SAD for a long time now, encapsulated in the expected increase in vote share from 10 per cent to 17 per cent (India Today MOTN) or 24 per cent (ETG). The party hopes that if the pro-centre vote of 40 per cent on average does not decline substantially, then it can make significant gains.

BJP Focus on Hindu Seats

Hindus are in sizeable numbers (a majority or more than the Sikh population, or more than their average population) in Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur, Jalandhar, Anandpur Sahib, Amritsar, Jalandhar and Ludhiana Lok Sabha seats, almost half of the Lok Sabha seats. The party has won Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Amritsar seats in the past.

It hopes high profile new joinees like Patiala MP Preneet Kaur (wife of Amarinder Singh), Ludhiana MP and grandson of ex-Chief Minister Beant Singh, Ravneet Bittu from Congress, lone AAP MP Sushil Singh Rinku, former US Ambassador Tarajnit Singh Sandhu could add Sikh votes and their personal votes to its Hindu vote base and emerge victorious.

It could also put in Bollywood / sports stars as candidates like in the past to add glam power. The entry of Sikh leaders has helped the party shed its tag of being anti-Sikh to some extent.

The SAD, which is striving to regain its lost Sikh vote base following the 2015 sacrilege incidents during its tenure in Punjab, has reaffirmed its dedication to the Panthic (Sikh religious) agenda. This stance, announced by the Akalis in their March 22 resolution, may also attract some of its Hindu supporters to the BJP.

With this strategy, the BJP is making an aggressive push to increase its best ever tally of 3 seats in Punjab. However, it's a tall task. A quadrangular contest means a party could romp hope with a 30 per cent vote share as well. It all depends upon how sharply the Sikh vote is divided (if at all) between the three main players - INC, AAP, SAD - and how united the Hindu vote is.

As for AAP and Congress, since they both represent anti-BJP politics, which party gets more seats may actually depend upon the quality and winnability of candidates. Congress has a slightly better shot primarily because it is seen as a national party opposing the BJP and question marks remain over the neutrality or anti-centre position of SAD.

2024-03-28T08:29:58Z dg43tfdfdgfd